The sun's energy is free, but methods of converting this
energy into human wealth requires technical ingenuity and cost money. Plants
are the most generous energy converters and humans supply labor and skills to
grow the most useful plants. Some of the sun's energy has been stored in the earth's crust as fossil fuels -- coal,
oil and natural gas. The carbon in these deposits was captured by plants and
animals. To make a complex story simple you can argue that much of the wealth generated in the 20th
century was an expression of the relatively cheap and abundant energy supplied
by carbon deposits. Diesel and gasoline fuelled engines, allowed the creation
of machines that work for humans, permitted industrial-scale, mechanized
agriculture and worldwide transportation system at sea, on land and in the air.
The planet has carbon
stores in many forms and places. In ecological terms, the carbon cycle must be
understood and properly managed if long term human survival is desirable. If
too much of this carbon is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide,
climates change and human populations are at risk. Fossil fuels represent a valuable and finite
resource that should be used with restraint and sophisticated understanding.
The opposite occurred in the 20th century with the exploitation of fossil fuel
in a reckless manner. A major challenge for 21st century humans is to better
understand the proper uses of fossil fuels, restrain their use, and control the
release of carbon gases into the atmosphere.
Major changes in the identification of new gas and oil
fields and changes in methods of extraction have occurred, giving the
USA and Canada domestic sources of fossil fuel that may provide current levels
of energy for many more years – longer
if use decreases with sensible conservation policies and more efficient energy
use. China has a vast resource of shale gas and oil that remains in the ground.
The International Energy Agency reported
that to meet the world’s growing need for energy will require more than
a $48 trillion in investment between now and 2035. Current spending is $1.6
trillion per year. The WEA estimate
ignores climate change and may be completely wrong. In 2014 the supply of oil
exceeded demand and world prices dropped dramatically. The OPEC suppliers refused to reduce production, so that low
prices would force competing countries to reduce their capital expenditures on
new and expensive oil well development. Low oil prices means the more fossil
fuels can be burned with increased climate change calamities.
Oil pricing has become a frantic interaction of countries
with fossil fuels to sell, speculators driven by greed, and consumers who
continue to buy petroleum products regardless of price. The consumers exercise
little control over the supply and cost of fossil fuels; however, consumers are
the only group that could adopt a sensible policy of fossil fuel consumption.
Despite many protest groups attacking the oil and gas industry, little has been accomplished. Protesters
usually attack the producers and never accept the blame that the consumers
deserve. The final solution to the problems that fossil fuel extraction creates
is for consumers to use less. Every responsible citizen needs to pledge a 30%
reduction in fossil fuel use immediately and further reductions as alternative
energy sources become available.
Canada is a country with large deposit is of fossil fuels
and an economy that depends of gas and oil revenues. A healthy debate slows industrial devolvement with its threat
of land and water pollution. The debate is mostly between Canadians who want
more oil revenues by building pipelines and coastal ports needed to export gas
and oil and Canadians who are committed to protecting the natural environment.
Governments, corporations and their investors who receive oil and gas revenues
continue to push for more development.
Horodelski stated: "And another worrisome note, some
traders are looking at the derivative books and seeing negative signs when it
comes to the plummet in oil. You may wish to spend the weekend brushing up on
CLOs (collateral loan obligations), CDSs (credit default swaps) and other
derivative instruments. Unfortunately, when you try to get some decent research
on the size and issues associated with this market you find yourself in the
dark, deep web of conspiracy theorists and doom-day seers."
Reduced oil and gas production and increased cost worldwide
would be a long-term benefit for all humans. Reduced consumption reduces air
water and land pollution and is a perquisite of controlling climate change. The
industrial arguments for providing the energy needs of increasing populations and promoting economic
growth are persuasive and pervasive. The real solution has three components:
1. Reduced populations
2. Non fossil fuel energy
sources
3. Economies with no
dependence on oil and gas revenues
A study funded by the
UK Energy Research Centre concluded that
the world should forego extracting a third of its oil and half of its gas
reserves before 2050… The majority of
the huge coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States should remain
unused along with over 260 thousand million barrels oil reserves in the Middle
East, equivalent to all of the oil reserves held by Saudi Arabia. The Middle
East should also leave over 60% of its gas reserves in the ground. The
development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil –
oil of a poor quality which is hard to extract – are also found to be
inconsistent with efforts to limit climate change.
The Economist argued that the fall in oil and gas prices is
an opportunity for a new approach to fossil fuels:" Most of the time,
economic policymaking is about tinkering at the edges. Politicians argue
furiously about modest changes to taxes or spending. Once in a while, however,
momentous shifts are possible. Bold politicians have seized propitious
circumstances to push through reforms that transformed their countries. Such a
once-in-a-generation opportunity exists today. The plunging price of oil,
coupled with advances in clean energy and conservation, offers politicians
around the world the chance to rationalize energy policy. They can get rid of
billions of dollars of distorting subsidies, especially for dirty fuels, while
shifting taxes towards carbon use. A cheaper, greener and more reliable energy
future could be within reach… the reason for optimism is the plunge in energy
costs. The price of cleaner forms of energy is also falling and new technology
is allowing better management of the consumption of energy, especially
electricity. For decades the big
question about energy was whether the world could produce enough of it, in any
form and at any cost. Now, suddenly, the challenge should be one of managing
abundance. Falling prices provide an opportunity for …cash-strapped developing
countries such as India and Indonesia who have bravely begun to cut fuel
subsidies, freeing up money to spend on hospitals and schools… That should be
just the beginning. Politicians, for the most part, have refused to raise taxes
on fossil fuels in recent years, on the grounds that making driving or heating
homes more expensive would not only annoy voters but also hurt the economy.
With petrol and natural gas getting cheaper by the day, that excuse has gone.
Burning fossil fuels harms the health of both the planet and its inhabitants.
Taxing carbon would nudge energy firms and consumers towards using cleaner
fuels. As fuel prices fall, a carbon tax is becoming less politically
daunting."
From Surviving Human Nature by Stephen Gislason
From Surviving Human Nature by Stephen Gislason